7-27-20

Game 1: Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics

Pick: Athletics ML (-120)

I loved targeting the Athletics in this opening series. The Angels entered 2020 with a lot of hype, between Mike Trout’s stardom, Shohei Ohtani’s return to the mound, and the signing of Anthony Rendon. Personally, I was much more bullish on Oakland than any other team in this division. Early hype on the Angels caused some pretty significant public betting action on these games, giving the A’s an immediate advantage.

Chris Bassitt (OAK) showed much more control than the young Griffin Canning (LAA), although it wasn’t a terrible outing for Canning. Joakim Soria definitely scared me in the ninth, before striking out the tying run at the plate, in Mike Trout. Although Liam Hendricks blew his first save attempt of the year on opening night, his absence in this game was much more likely for rest, after recording a four-out save last night.

Game 2: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres

Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+110)

The D-backs bats remain cold to start 2020, after losing three of four to the Padres at Petco. The Diamondbacks felt undervalued, being a dog in all four of these games, but perhaps rightfully so. Luke Weaver pitched 3 strong innings before a mini-meltdown cost the game in the 4th inning. Arizona could not mount a comeback against San Diego’s staunch bullpen, as they were able to on Sunday.

The D-backs are a team that I picked to improve this year, but they will need a better contribution from Eduardo Escobar, Nick Ahmed, and David Peralta, than they got in this series. The Padres were less than impressive but Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack seem well on their way to stardom. One positive takeaway for the D-backs was Taylor Clarke’s solid work out of the pen today. He could easily supplant a struggling starter in the near future.

Game 3: Atlanta Braves vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays ML (-140) ***2U

If you’re new to The Noise Media, here’s a phrase you will hear quite often from me. Fade the trendy dog. It’s hard not to side with the Braves after their absolute thrashing of the Mets on Sunday night, yet this line was disrespectful to the Rays. It opened higher than -155 and came tumbling down to almost -130, as public money came pouring in on the Braves. There was definitely some sharp buy-back, but I was able to find the number at a comfortable price.

The game itself? Must have been tough for Braves fans/bettors. The Rays put a beating on two of the Braves’ former top prospects in Mike Folynewicz and Touki Toussaint. Folty looked especially bad, struggling with command as well as a notable drop in his velocity. Clearly the Braves did not like what they say and designated Folty for assignment right after the game. Something tells me there’s more to that story…

Game 4: Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers

Pick: Kansas City Royals ML (+115)

Sometimes with these short lines, you run into situations where the simply put, the wrong team is favored. The Tigers won over the public bettors after taking 2/3 from the new-look Reds to start the 2020 season. This proved to bite them, as we got another convincing win, this time with a score of 14-6.

The Royals are another team I expect to improve in 2020. Expect this lineup to get a boost when Hunter Dozier returns as well. It was very promising to see some of the Royals young arms hold up well in these first few games, especially Brady Singer on Saturday. We will be all over these Royals as long as oddsmakers are not giving them fair credit.

Game 5: Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds

Pick: Chicago Cubs ML (-110)

Nail-biter to end the night…It felt like the Cubs WANTED to lose this one for me. I really liked the Cubs in this spot, especially with a short line. I can’t understand what was so inspiring about the Reds at home tossing out Wade Miley?

What we saw in this game is exactly what makes my outlook on the Cubs bearish. You absolutely cannot trust this bullpen. Things are getting concerning when I see Rowan Wick as a better option to close out games than Craig Kimbrel. I don’t believe we will be seeing Kyle Hendricks or Tyler Chatwood repeat their performances against the Milwaukee Brewers too many times this season, which makes this game all the more problematic.

Final Thoughts:

There’s nothing like starting off the week with a big Monday. Obviously, the Marlins COVID-19 situation casts a dark shadow over the league. Reports say that up to 12 active players have tested positive. We have yet to see what the report from the Phillies camp has been. This is a key test for the MLB early in the season, but commissioner Rob Manfred doesn’t seem to be too concerned. Overly optimistic? Possibly.