8-1-20

Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets

Pick: Heat ML (-140)

For as much as I preach about getting value, I might have to eat my words. On The Noise Podcast, I gave this play out as a lean when it was (+100). I missed the plus money and then made the mistake of of waiting the line out. Rather than take Miami at -2.5, I opted to take the moneyline and keep the risk to a minimum. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo led the way with 22 points each and Duncan Robinson hit some clutch buckets down the stretch. The Heat would have covered any spread but a little bit of FOMO triggered a moneyline wager for me.

Final: 125-105 Heat

Utah Jazz vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Pick: Thunder ML (-115)

I liked the Thunder here opening at around even and getting some money towards their side. The Thunder have been a good team to back all season, sporting one of the best ATS records. They have been consistently undervalued and this was another great opportunity to back them against a seemingly superior team.

Denver came into this one banged up, missing many of their top guards and with questions about what rotation Coach Malone would be rolling with. One of the Thunder’s best lineups is guard heavy and the Nuggets didn’t have any answer for them.

Final: 110-94 Thunder

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Indiana Pacers

Pick: 76ers -5.5

The 76ers are an enigma. They have all the pieces needed to make a deep run in the playoffs. Yet they can’t seem to put it all together at once and win games consistently. There was a lot of hype surrounding Philly coming into the restart. Joel Embiid was supposed to be in amazing shape, Ben Simmons would be shooting threes, and Philly would look like they should.

The Pacers came in exactly the opposite. Malcolm Brogdon and Victor Oladipo were question marks about even playing in the bubble. (Brogdon was out for this one). On top of that, the Pacers best and most consistent performer this year, Domatas Sabonis was ruled out for the season with a foot injury. I thought that this should be a slam dunk for Philly (sorry). You could have predicted that the 76ers would not be focused enough to beat this gritty Pacers team, but you probably didn’t expect 53 points from TJ Warren.