8-21-20

Denver Nuggets vs. Utah Jazz

Pick: Jazz ML (-125), Over 217.5

For the second straight game, the jazz have been undervalued by the books. However, in this one the jazz were pummeled by sharp money. An opening line of -1.5 to Denver was pushed all the way to -2 for the Jazz. Unfortunately I got to this line a little bit late and we got almost the worst of it. 

My main target in this one was the over, but obviously that didn’t hit. I really did not expect Denver to come out so flat in Game 3. After an embarrassing loss in Game 2, Denver looked even worse this game. Nikola Jokic could not even get into the paint with Rudy Gobert hounding him as soon as he crossed half court. Denver is a deep team but they are really hurting without top perimeter defender Gary Harris and spark plug scorer Will Barton. While I don’t love Utah moving forward, Denver is in real trouble.

Final: 124-87 Jazz

Minnesota Twins at. Kansas City Royals

Pick: Royals ML (+125)

The Twins get way too much love from the public. They are consistently large favorites, even on the road, against a quietly solid Royals team. Jake Odorizzi struggling and a short line move towards the Royals was enough for me to pull the trigger at +125. This game felt much closer to even than the price suggested.

The Twins offense is simply not as good as people think. Unless they are hitting home runs, this team simply does not have much more than an average offense. Even more concerning is that Odorizzi has not pitched deeper than 4 innings in any start. Obviously in this one he gave up 5 runs in three innings, but the lack of deep outings is concerning.

Final: 7-2 Royals 

Overall:

Man, is it good to be back in the win column! Huge day today propels us back to positive for the week.
Daily Figure: 5-2 (+3.08U)
Weekly Figure: +0.90U