8-29-20

Cleveland Indians at St. Louis Cardinals

Pick: Cardinals ML (-127)

Coming off a 14-2 thrashing on Friday night, the Cardinals opened as a short -120 favorite behind ace, Jack Flaherty. This made the Indians a trendy dog, as the public loves taking teams the day after they win big. Cleveland threw Carlos Carrasco, who’s surface stats continue the narrative that he is still an elite starting pitcher. His expected stats are showing that a downturn in traditional stats could be incoming. Carrasco has a brutal 11% BB-rate and is bottom of the league in hard-contact and barrel rate allowed. Backing John Flaherty against this team was the play, especially with the number closing closer to -140.

As you might have started to understand, the pre-flop analysis doesn’t always come to fruition. Taking a similar theme from yesterday, sloppy base-running did us in. Down a run in the bottom of the 12th, Yadier Molina was thrown out at home plate on a dribbler up the line to first. Got to question why Molina thought he could go and why Molina was even on the basepaths…

Final: 2-1 Indians

New York Mets at New York Yankees

Pick: Yankees ML (-105)

It’s rare that I get to make a play on my hometown Yanks. Yankees games like Dodgers games or Lakers games attract hoards on public bettors to their side. Because these teams often win, the books need to adjust the pricing. That means the price on the Yankees is often highly inflated and therefore provides little to no value.

However, in this game we were able to find the Yankees at a fair price, given their recent struggles and JA Happ’s brutal 2020. If you got on this game earlier you might have even gotten the Yankees as a very short dog. These are one of my favorite plays, short dogs that flip to favorites. Once you see some books flip the line or come close to it, you should always shop for the best line and try to cash a dog! Both the Yanks and Happ needed this win and it was nice to get one off the hands of a familiar face…

Final: 2-1 Yankees

Overall:

Daily Record: 2-3 (-1.14U)
Weekly Record: -0.99U