8-8-20

Utah Jazz vs. Denver Nuggets

Pick: Nuggets ML (-125)

What a gutsy win for this Denver team that has been lukewarm in the bubble. Let this be a lesson in NBA betting. I try to avoid taking spreads under -3 and never take anything lower than -2. You’re just asking to lose on a missed free throw or a three-pointer with a foot on the line. This could have easily happened in this OT matchup. I’m happy to pay 15 cents juice to avoid the extra sweat, even though the consensus -1.5 would have covered.

Final: 134-132 Nuggets

Phoenix Suns vs. Miami Heat 

Pick: Suns ML (-130)

The Heat were once again without Jimmy Butler and had little to no answer for Devin Booker and the undefeated (in the bubble) Suns. Here the Suns were at a more reasonable -2.5/-3. There was some sharp action moving this line around the key number of 3, so I decided it was smart to play the MoneyLine. Again, it would have worked out to play the spread, yet the moneyline felt like the safest option. I didn’t feel like Phoenix should be a significant favorite, definitely not past 3, which the sharps clearly agreed. It came down to the wire but we were able to capitalize on Booker’s incredible run.

Final: 119-112 Suns

Barcelona at Napoli

Pick: Barcelona -1 (-115)

The restart of European Soccer has not been kind to Napoli. Although they started off well, winning the Coppa Italia, they fell all the way to 7th in the Serie A table. I’m not the biggest soccer bettor, but I know when people are counting out Lionel Messi too early. The big guns showed up for Barça as both Messi and Luis Suarez scored. We got a little help from the refs as Clement Lenglet’s opening goal came as a result of a questionable push-off. Regardless, Barcelona looked much more determined in this one.

Final: 3-1 Barcelona

Other Picks:
Indians ML (-115) – Win
Over 9.5 (Twins vs. Royals) – Win