9-12-20

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers

Pick: Brewers ML (-104)

It’s not often that Josh Hader ruins a bet for us, but it sure does happen. The Brewers were very sharp in this one, as their offense has finally started to pick up. The Brewers opened up as a short dog and moved all the way down to -110 by first pitch. Spots where short dogs transition to favorites are some of my favorite opportunities to identify sharp action.

The Brewers were able to put up two runs on Kyle Hendricks thanks to a Ryan Braun home-run, but it was not enough insurance. The Brewers bullpen is usually solid and trustworthy but Hader clearly didn’t have his best stuff. The Brewers rode a 2-0 lead all the way into the ninth inning but Hader gave up a 3-run home run to Jason Heyward followed by a solo shot to Ildemaro Vargas (his first in 2020). You shouldn’t view games as ones you should have won, but this could certainly be in that category. Tip your hat to Cubs bettors…

Final: 4-2 Cubs

Las Vegas Golden Knights vs. Dallas Stars

Pick: 1P Under 1.5

So apparently, this is like the best-kept-secret of the Stanley Cup playoffs? The 1st period under has hit in ALL THREE games thus far in this round. The 1P under has actually hit in the Knights last SIX games, going back to last round. With the Stars reverting back to their defensive style of hockey, this play felt like a no-brainer. I don’t usually recommend taking plays just because similar outcomes have occurred, but the statistics seem to back it up. This is also the case for strong bankroll management. Already up for the day/week, we can exercise a level of risk in order to take the chance on a play like this. Something tells me I will be circling it once again on Monday…

Final: 2-1 Stars, 0-0 1P***

Overall:

Daily Figure: 3-1 (+1.35U)
Weekly Figure: +4.33U