9-16-20

Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers

Pick: Royals ML (-113)

Here is a case of a line that didn’t have a strong enough reaction to recent events. Brady Singer was great in his last start against the Indians, even flirting with a no-hitter. However, his peripheral stats have suggested that he is really improving. On the other hand, the statcast-darling Tigers’ offense has went down the drain. A surging pitcher with a solid offense and strong bullpen should not be just a -113 favorite against a putrid offense and poor pitching. This is another one of those plays that you take every time you see such a strong price disparity.

Final: 4-0 Royals

Cleveland Indians at Chicago Cubs

Pick: Indians ML (-116)

File this one as *sort of* a bad beat. For the Indians, Aaron Civale has been extremely solid in 2020, although he is walking too many and is not striking out enough batters. Jon Lester, for the Cubs, has been shaky at best in 2020, especially at home. Although the Indians lineup has been slumping, I felt like a matchup with Lester could get the bats going.

This wasn’t exactly the case as Lester pitched strong through five and Cubs manager David Ross pulled him before he faced the lineup a third time. What was one of the worst bullpens in baseball to start the year has slowly come around to help the Cubs close out games. After the Indians failed to score in the top of the tenth, Phil Maton was not able to escape a bases-loaded jam. Maton struck out both William Contreras and Kyle Schwarber before he hung a slider on an 0-2 count to Javy Baez, sealing the deal. Not a bad beat as much as it is a heartbreaker.

Final: 3-2 Cubs

Overall:

Usually I try to avoid parlays, but there are times, especially towards the end of the season, when you can figure out the teams that need to win and the ones that simply don’t. That provides opportunities to stack up games and get a little parlay going (for minimal risk!) The Mets/Phillies game wasn’t and example of that situation, but we were treated to some late inning theatrics to get a big hit!

Daily Figure: 2-3 (-0.04 units)
Weekly Figure: -0.97 units