9-8-20

Pablo Carreno-Busta vs. Denis Shapovalov

Picks: Carreno-Busta ML (+125)
Over 39.5 games (-120)

What a match! At times, Shapovalov has really looked incredible in this tournament. It feels like he is so close to unlocking his elite potential. His game has been very service oriented, so I immediately looked towards the over. Carreno-Busta is a great return player and his serve has been very solid in the tourney. Sharp money was all over Carreno-Busta as he fell from +160 to about even money by the time this line closed.

Yes, this should have been Novak Djokovic. However, the fact that PCB “snuck” in should not have created such a heavy price disparity. Getting this line earlier could have been an even better payout. The match was a nail-biter, as the catalyst was PCB’s ability to edge Shapo in the tiebreaks. High quality competition and two-tiebreaks set up nicely for the over in this match, PCB as a live dog was an added bonus!

Final: 3-6, 7-6, 7-6, 0-6, 6-3 Pablo Carreno-Busta

Los Angeles Angels at. Texas Rangers

Pick: Angels ML (-123)

This is a prime example of why you should trust the numbers, especially the peripherals. I have faded Heaney on more than one occasion and have gotten burned. Heaney has been good in 2020, but he is not an ace. His peripheral stats are average at best. It was only a matter of time before we saw a blip in the radar. On the other hand, Lance Lynn has been incredible in 2020, aside from a few poor outings after the trade deadline. It’s strange that the Rangers didn’t move him to a contender…

Coming into this game, the Rangers were at or near the very bottom of the league in all offensive categories including WRC+ and WRC+ against lefties. With a slight line move towards the Angels, I was hoping to squeeze another strong start from Heaney. Backtracking on my in-deptch analysis cost us, as Lynn returned to form and Heaney started taking steps back to mediocrity.

Overall:

Daily Figure: 3-2 (+1.00U)
Weekly Figure: +2.81U