Betting on Khabib: Beware

On Saturday night the UFC will put on UFC 254 on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi. The final event in their latest trip to Fight Island, the card promises fireworks with clashes between skilled fighters on the main card and the prelims. No fight, however, will have more eyes on it than the scrap for the lightweight title between Khabib Nurmagomedov -350 and Justin Gaethje +285. With a record of 28-0, Khabib Nurmagomedov has proved to be a destructive force for anyone matched up against him. In fact, in Khabib’s 12 UFC fights he’s only been the underdog twice, both of those fights closing near even money. With a track record like this, there seems to be no better option than to bet Khabib. But, what happens when the immovable object meets the unstoppable force?

Stepping into the octagon opposite Khabib, is arguably his hardest challenge yet. NCAA Division I All-American Wrestler, Justin Geathje, has more fight of the year awards than nearly anyone in the sport, along with 5 fight of the night and 4 performance of the night bonuses.  After gathering 9 knockouts and 5 title defenses in the World Series of Fighting, Gaethje took his talents and undefeated record to the UFC. Taking on the cream of the crop early in his run in the UFC proved to be a challenge as he took losses against Eddie Alvarez, a former UFC lightweight champion, and Dustin Poirer, a former interim UFC lightweight champion. Those loses would do little to shake the confidence of Gaethje, who would go on a run finishing all four of his next opponents, en route to his undisputed title shot against Nurmagomedov.

So what makes Gaethje such a threat to Nurmagomedov’s title reign? Simply put, Nurmagomedov hasn’t faced an opponent who fights with the pace Gaethje does. A run of the mill Khabib fight will go one of two ways: He will grab his opponents legs, take them to the ground and “maul” them in his words. Or, even worse, “smesh them”.

Bad news for Khabib is that Gaethje has the highest takedown defense percentage (80%) than any other opponent Khabib has faced in the UFC. Khabib is also yet to face an opponent with NCAA All-American status while competing in MMA. The fact that Gaethje is able to fall back on his wrestling skill while primarily using his standup as his offense is what is going to put him miles ahead of anyone else Khabib has faced. 

The final piece to Gaethje’s insane fighting puzzle is his ability to absorb strikes. While this may sound like a plan for someone fighting in a street, Gaethje has become the master of this through his MMA career. Gaethje was approached one day by MMA Legend Chael Sonnen after a media day when Sonnen said, “ You know Justin you block a lot of punches with your face.” Gaethje responded, “ No I block them with my forehead.” Imagine a man getting paid to step into a cage fight with you, being just fine with getting punched in the head. Gaethje’s ability to eat punches really adds a lot to his stand up. By absorbing strikes, Gaethje is able to close distance, feel his opponents range, and gain confidence. Khabib hasn’t faced a chin like this since his bout with Michael Johnson, who Khabib wasn’t able to get a finish against and instead had to ask Johnson to “give up”. 

Both of these fighters are at the top of their weight class for a reason. Their individual styles of fighting and their drives to be the best has propelled them to success in a sport of warriors. While an argument can be made that Khabib may be the most dangerous and dominant champion in UFC, there is no arguing that Gaethje poses the biggest threat ever to Khabibs throne.