NBA Playoffs – Matchup Predictions and Best Bets

Your odds may vary, please be sure to shop around!

East:

1. Milwaukee Bucks (-10000) vs. 8. Orlando Magic (+1600)

It’s tough to judge the Buck’s performance in the bubble thus far/ They haven’t looked great, going just 3-5, including a loss to the Nets in the largest upset (point spread-wise) in NBA history. The Bucks were a -19 consensus favorite. That should be taken with a grain of salt, as the Bucks dealt with injuries to their starters, as well as coach Budenholzer resting Giannis and other key players throughout the restart. 

The Bucks are expected to be healthy coming into the series against a scrappy Orlando Magic team. The Magic are not coming in healthy, after losing forward Jonathon Isaac to a gruesome ACL injury. Star-player Aaron Gordon is also in danger of missing the first game in this series. At the current price there’s no way I’m laying on the Bucks in any capacity. There really isn’t a strong reason to even throw pizza money at the Magic. Orlando was able to take the first game against the eventual NBA Champion Toronto Raptors. The Bucks to win the series 4-1 (+220) is worth a look, as well as the over 4.5 (+120) games, but I’m not counting on it. The Magic will be without most or all of their long, defensive forwards, meaning there’s not a player on the court that can defend Giannis.

Prediction: Bucks in 4

2. Toronto Raptors (-5000) vs. 7. Brooklyn Nets (+1400)

(Photo by Nathaniel S. Butler/Getty Images)

The Raptors have looked great since the restart. They have been playing their starters in limited capacity, yet they still look dominant. They’ve been getting solid production from their bench, meaning they can trust them and ensure another deep playoff run. Losing Kawhi Leonard will likely stop them from repeating as champions, but Kyle Lowry remains the heart and soul of the team, while Pascal Siakam continues to become a budding star. 

The Nets were written-off coming into the NBA restart. Between injuries and opt-outs the Nets were expected to stumble into the 8th seed. Caris LeVert willed the Nets to a 5-3 bubble record, including wins against the Bucks and the Clippers. The books are certainly leaning that the Nets will be able to pick up a game in this series and I have to agree. The Nets probably aren’t worth a look on the moneyline, but I like them to pick up a game or two. Jumping in here with the Over 4.5 games (-114).

Prediction: Raptors in 5

3. Boston Celtics (-360) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (+275)

This is the matchup that the 76ers would have cherry-picked if they could have. They went 3-1 against the Celtics in the regular season, capitalizing on a serious size advantage. In the bubble, the 76ers also wouldn’t have to worry about their abysmal road record. Although this could have all worked out nicely for the Sixers, I have a hard time believing they will prevail without Ben Simmons. The 76ers seemed to perform better with Shake Milton in and Al Horford coming off the bench. Without Simmons, Horford will likely be back in the starting lineup, crowding the front-court and therefore not giving Joel Embiid the space he needs to dominate in the paint. The Sixers will likely still beat the Celtics up inside, but without Simmons they lack a decisive edge in this series. The over 5.5 at (-140) is worth a look, or perhaps a 4-2 exact outcome at (+330). 

Prediction: Celtics in 6

4. Miami Heat (-335) vs. 5. Indiana Pacers (+250)

This is a more even series than the price suggests. The Pacers are without their top-two players Domantas Sabonis and Victor Oladipo. If not for the heroics of Damian Lillard and Devin Booker, TJ Warren would be your 2020 Bubble MVP. The Pacers are a tough, gritty group that could have turned some heads with their roster intact. The Heat were banged up during the bubble, but they may have exercised a little bit of strategic resting for stars Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. They have continued to get high production from rookies Tyler Herro and Kendrick Nunn. The Heat’s 3-5 bubble record suggests that they might not have been too concerned with winning and are relying on their vets to get this team into shape for the playoffs.

Bettors might be concerned with going all chalk, but remember that favorites win first-round matchups at close to an 85% clip. However, I’m not laying over $3 for a Miami team that hasn’t proven anything yet. I give Jimmy Butler the mental and talent advantage of TJ Warren, through their well-documented rivalry. With that being said, don’t expect an easy series for the Heat. I’m taking the Over 5.5 games played (-130). If the Heat go down a game or two, it might be a better chance to look at a side. If you like the Pacers at above (+250) and want to take the chance, I can’t say that’s a bad move at all.

(Photo by Brian Spurlock/USA-TODAY)

Prediction: Heat in 7

West:

1. Los Angeles Lakers (-420) vs. 8. Portland Trail Blazers (+315)

To start, the Los Angeles Lakers struggles are well-documented. They are still without a secondary play maker on offense. They can struggle on defense and look quite stagnant at times. Lebron himself has publicly questioned the team, in hopes to get them focused for the playoffs. Hypothetically, a laser-focused Blazers team, led by 2020 Bubble MVP Damien Lillard should worry bettors. You could even say it has worried bookmakers because the price is so low. However, I can’t seem to find a scenario where the Trail Blazers are able to edge the Lakers in a 7-game series. Perhaps the bookmakers are hoping that the public will just eat up the Blazers at whatever price they put out, so thye are not worried about hanging such a low number on the Lakers. At the end of the day, there is no way that the Trail Blazers have the defensive integrity to stop Lebron James and Anthony Davis in a seven game set. I do think that the Blazers will pick off a game or two, especially if the Lakers are still rounding into form, but Lebron James will not be bounced in the first round. That being said, I’m certainly concerned about these Lakers, but am taking them here on the series handicap -2.5 (+125)

Prediction: Lakers in 5

2. Los Angeles Clippers (-530) vs. 7. Dallas Mavericks (+380)

In a way, this matchup feels similar to the Lakers and Blazers. For the Mavericks, Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis make up an exciting and high-scoring, young Mavericks team that performed well in the regular season. Again, it’s important not to put too much stock into the 8 games these teams played in the restart, but it is worth pointing out that strong team defense is not always something a team can just turn on. The Mavs ceded over 110 points in every game, including over 130 in five of them.

On the other hand, the Clippers looked much better, as their game scores looked closer to regular season games. The Clippers are a deep team, but many of their important bench players have been injured or have been involved in some off-court issues (looking at you Lou Williams). Regardless, as long as this team can get healthy and in-tune by Game 3 of this series, they should get by without much of a sweat. Between Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, they should have someone on the court to contain Luka Doncic at all times.

Prediction: Clippers in 6

3. Denver Nuggets (-280) vs. Utah Jazz (+220)

I think many people will be tempted to take Donovan Mitchell and company at +220, yet I don’t feel that it is mis-priced. The Jazz are not very deep behind their top-seven players. Their second best scorer, Bojan Bogdonovic is out for the year with a wrist injury and their starting point guard, Mike Conley, is expected to miss at least the first game of the series after leaving the bubble for the birth of his child.

Denver is a team that can let you down on any given night, so I will avoid placing a wager on this series. This is only Denver’s second playoff appearance with this young core and I am predicting another second-round exit for them. The edge is certainly on the Nuggets but be weary that Donovan Mitchell has the ability to take over games and win down the stretch better than any other player on the court during this series. (I’m sure Jamaal Murray has something to say about that.)

Prediction: Nuggets in 6

4. Houston Rockets (-150) vs. 5. Oklahoma City Thunder (+120)

The Chris Paul redemption story continues…The Thunder have been one of the most surprising teams in 2020 and continued their regular season success in the bubble. Their three-guard lineup of Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Dennnis Shroeder has proved lethal at times. They got another great season out of Center Steven Adams, as well as a high level production out of forward Danilo Gallinari, when he can stay healthy.

The Rockets will be without Point Guard Russell Westbrook for the first game of the series and perhaps beyond with a quad injury. Even with Westbrook, this will be the first test of the Rockets small-ball lineup in a playoff setting, where the game is much slower. The Rockets will continue to push the pace and will have opportunities to expose the Thunder’s defensive weaknesses. However, when it comes to execution, I’m not sure James Harden and co. will hit a high enough percentage of three’s to counteract the Thunder’s dominance in the paint and on the glass. If the Thunder can get enough of a contribution from perimeter defenders like Andre Roberson, they might be able to defend the three-ball well enough to take the upset here. Unfortunately this line has lost a lot of value from the opening number.

Prediction: Thunder in 7