NFL Rookie of the Year Race

This NFL season has been anything but normal this year with Coronavirus precautions being taken. Especially considering the lack of pre-season workouts, OTAs, etc, rookies have it even harder than most years. Teams have had drastically less time to build chemistry with their new additions and help them learn the ropes. Nevertheless, a few rookies have impressed this year, solidifying themselves not only as top rookie at their positions, but some have even positioned themselves as one of the best in the league already. Let’s take a look at where each rookie star matches up on their campaign to winning ROTY.

Burrow: +350

Six weeks into his young NFL career, Joe Burrow has shown flashes of potential, although only achieving one win in the process. Following Week 6, Burrow has amounted 1,617 passing yards (8th in NFL), 6 touchdowns (T-25th), 4 interceptions (T-14th), and a QBR of 50.2 (26th). Burrow became the first rookie quarterback in NFL history to throw for 300+ yards in three consecutive games after his solid performance against Jacksonville in Week 4. It will be interesting to see who the Bengals may choose to surround Burrow with amidst trade rumors involving wide receivers AJ Green and John Ross. Although Burrow doesn’t have the weapons Herbert does, his level of play has still impressed enough to keep him in the running for ROTY.

Herbert: -125

Following Tyrod Taylor’s unfortunate incident, Herbert stepped in and has not looked back. The sixth overall pick has impressed all year but really elevated his play against two of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game in Drew Brees and Tom Brady. He has consistently shown his ability to extend plays and make difficult passes look easy on the run with great vision and anticipation. The former Oregon Duck has thrown for 1,195 yards (23rd in NFL), 9 touchdowns (T-18th), 3 interceptions (T-8th), and a QBR of 72.9 (12th). Herbert has surprised many analysts and is now considered to have the best odds at winning Offensive Rookie of the Year by many sites.

Jefferson: +700

Many viewed Justin Jefferson as more of a second or third round talent coming out of LSU, but he has quickly proven himself as a first round talent. Despite the Vikings’ coaching staff limiting his snap count in Weeks 1 and 2, Jefferson ranks fifth in yards receiving (537 yards) and average yards per catch (19.2 yards). With Stefon Diggs no longer in Minnesota, Jefferson certainly looks to serve as a high quality WR2 next to the elusive Adam Thielen. With the Vikings struggling, Jefferson will truly have to shine if he hopes to become the frontrunner for ROTY.

Claypool: +1000

According to Pro Football Focus, Claypool is the second-highest graded receiver with an 83.6 rating, compared to Justin Jefferson’s rating of 90.8. Claypool has six touchdowns in five games this year, tied for the most by a rookie wide receiver through his first five games since 1970. The Canada native has 17 receptions for 335 yards and 4 receiving touchdowns, along with 21 rushing yards on 6 attempts for 2 touchdowns. Kevin Colbert and Mike Tomlin have done it again as they continue to hit on talented wide receivers in the draft. With the Steelers surging, and Juju Smith-Schuster struggling, Claypool could make this race interesting with a few big games. 

Edwards-Helaire: +1000

Coming off of a 161-yard rushing game against the Buffalo Bills, the rookie running back now has to welcome a Pro Bowl talent in Le’Veon Bell. The LSU product is ranked third in the NFL with 107 rushing attempts and second with 505 yards rushing. Drafted with the last pick of the first round, Edwards-Helaire almost seemed too good to be true for the ultra-talented Chiefs offense. Bringing Bell into the mix complicates things for CEH’s ROTY chances, but will certainly benefit him overall as Bell will mentor the young running back. 

Young: Young was the highest graded rookie defender in Week 6 (88.8), and highest graded defender on his team according to Pro Football Focus. All this while still working his way back from his injury, Young has displayed himself as the legitimate threat everyone expected him to be. While his stats through Week 6 may not reflect the hype he received entering this season, he will no doubt dominate offensive lines for years to come. 

Winfield Jr.: The former Minnesota star has shot out of the gate with an impressive campaign thus far. He has quickly asserted himself as the best rookie safety in the league, and according to Pro Football Focus comes in at #6 on their list of highest rated safeties. Winfield has totaled 35 tackles on the year, with two sacks and a forced fumble. The rookie has been a presence on defense and looks to be a key part of Tampa Bay’s Super Bowl campaign.
Johnson: Rookie corners have struggled so far this season, leaving Bears’ second-round pick Jaylon Johnson room to introduce himself. Matched up against some high quality receivers, Johnson has not faltered often. He has allowed only a 76.2 quarterback rating and a 44.7% completion percentage (fifth and fourth best in the NFL, respectively). He also has the most forced incompletions (9) amongst rookie defensive backs, with four more than the next leading back (CJ Henderson, 5). With Johnson acting as CB2 next to Pro Bowler Kyle Fuller, the Bears have a bright future in their secondary.