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How will NFL Opt-outs Affect Your Team and Your Bets?

As we are quickly approaching the 2020 NFL season, the NFLPA instituted an “opt-out” deadline of August 6th. As we’ve seen in other leagues, players are given the option to sit out the season (or the restarted season) for any reasons related to coronavirus concerns. This article looks to focus on how the opt-outs will affect each team by listing the players team-by-team per division. I am not looking to comment on, or judge any of the players for deciding to opt-out, so for their reasons for opting out will not be listed here. 

AFC East


(Photo from Getty Images)

New England Patriots
Projected Wins: 8.5
Opt-outs: LB Dont’a Hightower, S Patrick Chung, RB Brandon Bolden, OT Marcus Cannon, TE Matt LaCosse, WR Marqise Lee, OL Najee Toran, FB Danny Vitale

Buffalo Bills
Projected Wins: 8.5
Opt-outs: CB E.J. Gaines, DL Star Lotulelei

New York Jets
Projected Wins: 6.5
Opt-outs: LB C.J. Mosley, WR Josh Doctson, OL Leo Koloamatangi

Miami Dolphins
Projected Wins: 6.5
Opt-outs: WR Allen Hurns, WR Albert Wilson

Here is your team that’s the most affected by the opt-outs: The New England Patriots. The most significant loss, is their defensive leader, Dont’a Hightower. It’s tough to quantify players in Bill Belichick’s “next-man-up” system, but Hightower is clearly one of the biggest losses imaginable for this roster. They will be especially thin at linebacker after losing Jamie Collins and Kyle Van Noy this offseason. On top of that, they lose two starters in Patrick Chung and Marcus Cannon, as well as much needed depth on offense in Matt LaCosse and Marqise Lee. I’m not so sure how much signing Cam Newton can counteract these losses.

Another hugely significant loss in this division is CJ Mosley. Mosley is one of the best linebackers in football and was truly a great signing for the Jets. However, after he was unable to stay healthy in 2019, the Jets will not be cashing in, in 2020. The Bills dodged a bullet with Tre’Davious White deciding to play in 2020. I pegged the Jets and Dolphins to go under their win totals. However, I’m likely not taking that Dolphins under anymore and now looking at the Bills as the clear cut favorite to take the division.

AFC North


(Photo by Kareem Elgazzar/Enquirer)

Baltimore Ravens
Projected Wins: 11
Opt-outs: OT Andre Smith, WR De’Anthony Thomas

Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected Wins: 9
Opt-outs: None

Cleveland Browns
Projected Wins: 8.5
Opt-outs: DT Andrew Billings, OT Drake Dorbeck, OG Drew Forbes, OG Colby Gossett, OG Malcolm Pridgeon

Cincinnati Bengals
Projected Wins: 5.5
Opt-outs: OT Isaiah Prince, DL Josh Dupou

The player most affected in the AFC North will likely be Baker Mayfield. The Browns lost essentially all of their offensive line depth, especially at guard. This will put a ton of pressure on their already shaky offensive unit. If a starter goes down, it could have serious impact on their season. The rest of this division comes out practically unscathed. The Bengals and Ravens will be without a few depth pieces, with many of them not being locks to make the 53-man roster regardless.

AFC South


(Photo by Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY)

Houston Texans
Projected Wins: 7.5
Opt-outs: DL Eddie Vanderdoes

Tennessee Titans
Projected Wins: 8.5
Opt-outs: OT Anthony McKinney

Indianapolis Colts
Projected Wins: 9
Opt-outs: LB Skai Moore, S Rolan Milligan, S Marvell Tell

Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected Wins: 4.5
Opt-outs: LB Lerentee McCray, CB Rashaan Melvin, DL Al Woods

Projected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL, the Jaguars are the most negatively affected in this division. Melvin and Woods would both be vying for starting spots on defense. McCray was an important piece of their special teams unit, as well. Aside from the Jags, the rest of the AFC South’s team face little impact from player opt-outs. Most of these guys were on the fringe of making the roster. The Colts might have a small problem with their secondary depth, however, their line-backing core is fairly deep and shouldn’t be impacted.

AFC West


(Photo by Jill Toyoshiba/Kansas City Star)

Kansas City Chiefs
Projected Wins: 11.5
Opt-outs: RB Damien Williams, OL Lucas Niang, OG Laurent Dubernay-Tardif

Denver Broncos
Projected Wins: 7.5
Opt-outs: DL Kyle Peko, OT Ja’Wuan James

Los Angeles Chargers
Projected Wins: 7.5
Opt-outs: None

Las Vegas Raiders
Projected Wins: 7
Opt-outs: LB Ukeme Eligwe, DB D.J. Killings, DE Jeremiah Valoaga

The Chiefs lost two key members of their revamped offensive line. Not only did the Chiefs pay Patrick Mahomes $500 million, but they also invested heavily in the offensive line. The depth they acquired is now thinned-out, as they lost five-year starter Laurent Dubernay-Tardif and 2020 draft pick Lucas Niang. Another member of their 2019 Super bowl squad is also opting out, starting running back, Damien Williams. This will put immediate pressure on first-round draft pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire to perform in his rookie season.

The Broncos lost two potential starters on both sides of the ball and will likely be more impacted on offense, as their offensive line lacks depth. The Raiders lost multiple players but they were all long-shots to make the team. The only notable news out of the Chargers camp is the HC Anthony Lynn tested positive for COVID-19 but has since recovered and is ready for 2020.

How will NFL Opt-outs Affect Your Team and Your Bets?
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