Colorado Rockies at Oakland Athletics
Pick: Athletics ML (-140)
The Rockies have been surprisingly good to start the year, completing a two-game sweep of the Athletics. German Marquez was great, the only blemish was an early solo shot from Matt Chapman.
The A’s threw Frankie Montas and Jesus Luzardo today, two of their best young pitchers. Both of them looked pretty good, dominant at times and required to dance out of trouble in others. In the bottom of the 8th inning the A’s missed a huge opportunity with Robbie Grossman striking out to end the inning, leaving the bases loaded. In the top of the ninth, Luzardo gave up two runs on a comebacker to the mound after he threw a meatball over to first base, allowing Blackmon to reach. The A’s could not take advantage of the Rockies poor bullpen
Final: 5-1 Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers
Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+100)
I keep finding the Diamondbacks at plus money against inferior opponents and they keep blowing it. Their offense is just ice cold and they really need guys like David Peralta and Nick Ahmed to start hitting if they want to have a successful 2020.
The offense was no -existent against Texas starter Lance Lynn, but didn’t do a terrible job against the pen, taking a 4-2 lead into the 8th. In the 8th inning the Rangers scored 5 runs off Andrew Chafin and Hector Rondon. Walks are a problem for this bullpen and today was no different. Starters are not going deep into games and the offense is not performing up to par. This will be a factor in future plays.
Final: 7-4 Rangers
Washington Nationals at Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: Blue Jays ML (+145)
In Nate Pearson’s debut the bats let him down, although his fastball-slider combination was lethal, striking out five in five innings. Only problem was his opponent, Max Scherzer, was that much better, striking out 10 in 7.1 IP.
Striking out the first hitter you face?
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) July 29, 2020
That's BIG, Nate 🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/Qj3N3eQD05
Toronto’s bullpen was very solid until Japanese import, Shun Yamaguchi gave up 4 runs in the ninth. There was certainly value on the Blue Jays, especially when this line jumped at the thought of Juan Soto returning. Unfortunately for us, the execution was just not there.
Final: 4-0 Nationals
Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Braves
Pick: Rays ML (+105)
After a poor opening day for Charlie Morton it felt like the Rays were certainly undervalued in this spot. Morton bounced back in this one, looking much more like his usual self. The Rays actually took the lead off Braves ace Mike Soroka, but it was the bullpen who let them and us down. Kitterage, Drake, and Alvarado all gave up runs in the 6th inning or later. The Rays bullpen was great in 2019 and is expected to be solid once again. However at the start of 2020, shaky bullpens seem to be a concerning trend.
Final: 7-4 Braves
San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants
Pick: Over 7.5 (-115)
With the wind blowing out at Oracle, the Padres and Giants have been putting up pretty high totals in this series. I understood the respect for Chris Paddack, but a matchup between him and the aging Johnny Cueto should not have had a number of 7.5. The line jumped up to 8.0 pretty quickly but we were able to take advantage when there was some buyback on the under. The over 7.5 was juiced for as long as I could see it, but I’m happy we got that number.
After making a critical error in the Wild Card last season for the Milwaukee Brewers, rookie Trent Grisham has looked very solid in his new home in San Diego.
Final: 7-6 Giants
Merry Grishmas!#FriarFaithful pic.twitter.com/1cIo6ZmUFi
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) July 30, 2020
Final Thoughts:
As it turns out, the Padres and Giants were able to hit this number by the fourth inning. That being said, it’s important to be looking for good entries and good prices. To just say that you could have taken an 8.0 because “it would have won anyway” would be an incorrect analysis. Even though it was a tough day today (1-4), the principles of wagering still stand. I can live with losses when I believe the analysis was solid and the prices gave us an advantage.
