Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: Under 53
Boy does this hurt…For all the excitement of the NFL season, it’s fitting to start off with such a bad beat. Here is my analysis taken straight from The Noise Discord, where this play was sent:
If you don’t know how betting the NFL works, get used to things like this. This one comes down to two plays. First, the onside kick. The NFL has made it so difficult for teams to perform an onside kick, because of new rules forcing players to wait before they can start to run forward. The Chiefs recovered an onside kick following the Texans score and were almost already in FG position with just over two minutes left in the game. The Texans were able to extend the game just long enough to allow the Chiefs to kick a field goal from the 1-yard line.
While I do think the Under was still the correct play in this one, the 54.5 should have lost as well. After losing scoring to go down 31-13, the Texans elected to go for two and ended up failing the conversion. Realistically, the extra point or a completed conversion attempt would have forced this game over the total anyway. If you were lucky you might have taken my advice and bought some points back to 54.5. If you were smart, you would have taken my advice on The Noise Podcast from Wednesday and bet the U54.5 at standard juice before the line drop.
Final: 34-20 Chiefs
Overall:
Daily Figure: 2-1 (+0.82U)
Weekly Figure +4.07U
