Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills
This game is being deemed one of the more probable upsets of the weekend, and I can understand why. This Colts offense is not exciting to watch but they can roll down the field with a ground game led by rookie Jonathan Taylor that has only improved. The defense is what has kept this team is contention but they allow the 13th most passing yards and the Bills don’t even run all that well. Josh Allen can do a lot with his legs but the rest of the team only has 1,302 yards. That would be dead last in the league, even behind the Steelers. Josh Allen is a legitimate MVP candidate and is top-5 in EPA (expected points added) per play. With Stefon Diggs, I don’t expect the Colts to keep up for long.
Bills -6.5
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
This is the Super Bowl for the Browns. Week 17 surely meant a lot to Cleveland fans, as the team finally made the playoffs for the first time in over a decade. Still, getting a win would be the cherry on top of an impressive season. In case you didn’t know, the last time the Browns made the playoffs they narrowly lost to the host Pittsburgh Steelers. It’s funny how fate works. After a close win against a Steelers team resting some starters, I don’t really trust the Browns to win but I do think they can do everything in their power to keep this close. I’ve changed my mind after liking the Steelers by two scores and now it looks like the Browns spread is big enough to cover.
Browns +6
Rams @ Seahawks
Good defenses make for an underrated game. Wolford showed this team can be somewhat competent but Kyler Murray just wasn’t that good this year. I don’t expect the same fate for the Seahawks, even if Goff does end up playing. People often hammer the under when we have two good defenses and a bad QB, but this is actually one of those games I expect to hit on such a puny total. My confidence in the spread is diminishing but I fully expect a Seahawks win.
Seahawks -3 & Under 42
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Football Team
This game reeks of wasted underdog money. I understand the Washington defense doesn’t get the full credit it deserves, and sure Brady hasn’t been Aaron Rodgers in primetime. That doesn’t mean I expect the scrappy Washington Football Team to leave with a win or even a close game. The obvious choice is the Washington spread and the under, but looking at them actually play, Washington has been getting very lucky. They make random first down plays with no consistency to the offense, and a team with a GOAT candidate who threw for 40 touchdowns can still beat the second best pass defense. Throw in an underwhelming run defense against Ronald Jones (12th most rushing yards despite missing time) and the score should get pretty high. This isn’t the Pittsburgh Steelers they’re versing, Brady doesn’t play down.
Bucs -8 & Over 44.5
Futures
Bills to win AFC Championship +325
They were a huge value play earlier in the season but there’s no reason you can’t capitalize now. There are still good payouts for them as the Chiefs remain the favorites.
Titans to win AFC Championship +1600
The winner of the Ravens-Titans game unfortunately gets the honor of playing Patrick Mahomes. Still, this team has only gotten better and I expect them to have at least some semblance of a chance like they did last year. They were oh so close and with incredible odds like this, you can afford a half-unit or less dart throw.
Bucs to win NFC Championship +400
I prefer the Packers if we’re talking about the top picks but the value is all but lost. I have nothing against taking the favorites but you can always hedge with a smaller bet on an “underdog”. It’s easy to imagine a scenario where Brady once again leads a talented team to the promised land.
Seahawks to win NFC championship +600
Their WC game may actually be the biggest challenge they face. If they can escape the Rams unharmed, I think they’re the best value remaining. The Bears, Football Team, and Rams are just not going to win the Conference Championship.
