Death, Taxes, and NFL Week 1 headaches…Few things are less certain in life.
Don’t worry just yet, if you were doing your homework over the offseason, your team will probably be fine. Look back to any season and you will find a handful of elite players who didn’t live up to expectations. Most of them returned to form and were worth their draft pick by the end of the year. That doesn’t mean you should play it safe every time. Sometimes there are things to worry about, and making these early waiver decisions can help bring your team from mediocrity to being a contender.
Separating the news from the noise is a big part of making smart decisions. We will never get every choice correct (otherwise we’d be in Vegas living the life) but we can use certain metrics to make well-informed decisions.
Here are some of the most popular waiver adds, and whether or not they should be on your roster:
Nyheim Hines, RB Indianapolis Colts
Hines has a reputation for being a receiving back, similar to players like Tarik Cohen or Theo Riddick. Entering his third season, many were split on him and he went undrafted in most leagues. Why is that?
As a rookie, he had 63 receptions on 81 targets, gaining 425 yards and 2 TDs. That dropped to 44 receptions on 58 targets for 320 yards and 0 TDs in his sophomore campaign. The team didn’t seem to be using him.
Except, that’s not true.
Andrew Luck was the team’s quarterback in his rookie season, and he threw the ball a whopping 639 times. After his untimely retirement, Jacoby Brissett took over and only threw the ball 447 times. That means that despite almost 200 fewer passes in that offense, Hines only saw 23 fewer targets. Now with Philip Rivers under center, we should have realized that the former Charger would target his backfield just as he did in 2019, when Austin Ekeler had 92 receptions on 108 targets.
I don’t expect Hines to put up these numbers every week, but I expect Rivers to continue to involve him, especially with Marlon Mack now out for the year.
Verdict: Add in all PPR leagues
Malcolm Brown, RB Los Angeles Rams
While many were hoping for rookie Cam Akers to be the lead back with Todd Gurley gone, this was far from the case. Former undrafted free agent Malcolm Brown took control of the backfield on Sunday night.
Many are tripping over themselves to grab the 27-year old back, but I don’t buy it. His 18 carries for 79 yards led the team and his yards per carry was certainly inspiring. However, Cam Akers also had 14 carries himself, and Darrell Henderson had 3 himself. Brown did lead all backs in receiving game work, hauling in 3 of his 4 targets for 31 yards. Still, the Rams seem like they’re going to ride the hot hand each week. Most of Brown’s value came from his two TDs, and it’s not likely that he puts up that kind of performance every week. He only played 60% of all offensive snaps so I won’t have any confidence in his volume significantly increasing yet.
Verdict: Add if you’re desperate this week, otherwise fade
Robby Anderson, WR Carolina Panthers
Coming from the Jets, Robby Anderson wanted to prove himself after some underwhelming seasons. Now, with an improved offense to work with, he certainly proved himself. 6 receptions for 115 yards and a TD shows just what kind of upside he can provide.
Don’t be completely drawn in just yet. Anderson got most of that on a 75-yard TD, which is not something you can repeat every season.
Still, I’m on the hype train just a bit. He definitely won’t beat out both Curtis Samuel and D.J. Moore for complete control of this receiving game. Christain McCaffrey only had 4 targets after being a reception machine last year. If Teddy Bridgewater starts feeding CMC, Robby could see a lot of inconsistency every week. He was tied with Curtis Samuel for the second most targets, and led the team in receptions, but I’m not going to drop a ton of FAAB on him. He’s on a team with a terrible defense that will need to throw, so he will be a great hail mary play. He just won’t be a great weekly start.
Verdict: WR4 Value, add in 12-14 team leagues
Sammy Watkins, WR Kansas City Chiefs
The week 1 hero seemingly every year, Sammy Watkins had himself a day.
Any receiving option in this explosive Kansas City offense has the opportunity to produce on any given day, but with years of service under him, we know exactly who Sammy Watkins is. Last year, he had 9 receptions for 198 yards and 3 TDs in week 1. He was inconsistent at best.
Like Anderson, Watkins is an upside play. Still, I’m higher on Anderson for a specific reason. This is his first year away from the Jets. He started with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Bryce Petty throwing to him, and then got 3 years of Darnold. His talents were being wasted in New York, and while Teddy Bridgewater is no Patrick Mahomes, he’s an upgrade. Watkins had his best season in Buffalo, and has missed multiple games due to injury. In his two prior seasons with KC, Watkins only had 3 TDs each year. In all but one year his other 4 seasons, he had at least 6. Watkins will still have his huge games, but I’d be careful with how much trust I put into him this year.
Verdict: Fade
Dallas Goedert, TE Philadelphia Eagles
Only 1 game into 2020, and Dallas Goedert has 1/6th of his receiving totals from last season. This is encouraging for the third year TE. Goedert was on the field for 79% of offensive snaps and the high rate can continue. Carson Wentz didn’t have a great performance after his second touchdown, but Goedert got fed regardless. In shootouts where Wentz can throw more, this upside will continue.
If I grab Goedert he’s likely my backup TE, but if the receivers can’t stay on the field he could have a rock solid floor. We haven’t seen a TE duo lead a team in receiving yards since Gronk and Hernandez, but Ertz and Goedert could challenge that. Remember, this is only his third season and there is speculation about Ertz being traded. Perhaps that doesn’t happen this season, but it would certainly pave the way to Goedert being a top tight end in the league.
Verdict: Add in all leagues
Logan Thomas, TE Washington Football Team
Like everyone expected, Washington easily handled the Eagles. Granted, the Eagles were not only dealing with injuries at the skill positions, but their offensive line was missing three starters. This slugfest ended in unspectacular fashion, but nonetheless offers fantasy insight. New in town is tight end Logan Thomas, who seems to be building a nice relationship with quarterback Dwayne Haskins. Thomas was targeted 8 times, beating out both Terry McLaurin and Steven Sims.
Thomas was on the field for just shy of 3/4ths of all offensive snaps, and even had a TD. There is a lot of talk of him being a Darren Waller type, in that he has been in the league for years without significant production, with the chance to finally produce. That certainly could be true, but I don’t buy the consistency. Terry McLuarin underperformed but quietly had a good day. This Eagles defense was always going to be a challenge with Darius Slay now on the team to aid an already impressive defense. Washington didn’t get their first points until the end of the second quarter, and only had the field position for it because Carson Wentz threw an interception on his own 45. Their second touchdown emerged under similar circumstances.
Washington came away with a win, but mostly because they were able to bully Carson Wentz and the depleted O-Line. This offense could improve, but Haskins did not look great. Terry and Sims are going to be the beneficiaries of better matchups, so I expect Thomas to be reliant on TDs for now, something that may be hard to come by in this offense.
Verdict: Add only as a backup or third tight end. Take Thomas over guys like C.J. Uzomah, Jimmy Graham, and Dalton Schultz
Others to consider: RB Benny Snell Jr., RB Joshua Kelley, WR Parris Campbell, WR Laviska Shenault Jr.
Others to fade: RB Peyton Barber, RB Adrian Peterson, WR Scott Miller, TE C.J. Uzomah
Why are they still on the waiver wire?: QB Ben Roethlisberger, WR Will Fuller V, RB Raheem Mostert, TE Noah Fant, TE T.J. Hockenson
