Every single season, there is a range of outcomes for how each team will perform. If we want to be technical, that range goes from 0-16 to 16-0. However, not every team is made equal, and not every team is likely to reach a certain extreme.
Let’s take the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs for example. With Patrick Mahomes extended for at least another decade, the best QB in the league is likely to lead his team to the playoffs once again, and they should be among the favorites to reach the big game.
On the other hand, this Miami Dolphins team is still rebuilding. Fifth overall pick Tua Tagovailoa has the potential to lead this team to their first playoff win since 2000, along with the other rookies drafted with their haul of picks. It’s still unlikely that every single rookie can overcome adversity and win many more games than last season, especially given that their division has one of the hardest schedules in the league on paper.
It’s not always that simple. Some teams like the Cleveland Browns have a good mix of veteran talent and young prospects. There’s room for improvement, but they clearly have some quality players, especially on offense. The problem is that they’re in a tough division that is only getting tougher. Lamar Jackson’s Ravens are flying high after a 14-2 season while adding defensive talent in the offseason. The Steelers elite defense and return of Ben Roethlisberger will keep them in the mix. The Bengals just drafted Joe Burrow with the first overall pick, a player who many expect to be the next big thing. For the Browns, talent won’t always cut it. Because of that, we don’t have as narrow a range for how they finish the season. They could easily repeat their 6-10 record, or get well into the double digits.
I like to call teams like the 2020 Browns “make or break” teams. They have a lot going for them, but there are those hurdles in the way.
Here are my top 5 make or break teams for 2020.
5. Detroit Lions
Despite finishing last in their division, there is reason for hope. The Lions were without quarterback Matthew Stafford for half of the year, yet still managed to keep most of their games close. When Stafford was healthy, the team went 3-4-1, tieing with the Cardinals, losing to Kansas City by 4, Green Bay by 1, and Oakland by 7. Despite the defense allowing the 2nd most yards and 6th most points in the league, the Lions offense was able to stay in it with playoff teams, including a single digit loss to the eventual Super Bowl champs.
(Photo by Paul Sancya/Associated Press)
After Stafford went down in week 9, the Lions never won another game. With the third overall pick in the draft, they took cornerback Jeff Okudah out of Ohio State, a school that has produced great defensive backs for years. This pick should give them a future star to fill the void Darius Slay left when he was traded to the Eagles. The signings of Jamie Collins and Desmond Trufant won’t make huge impacts, but the older veterans should at least help to patch up this struggling defense.
Helping their case is a division that didn’t really make huge moves to acquire skill position players this offseason. The Vikings drafted Justin Jefferson to replace Stefon Diggs, who was traded to Buffalo. The Packers didn’t draft a single wide receiver in the draft, and the Bears brought in Nick Foles from the Jaguars to compete with Mitch Trubisky for the starting job at quarterback. The smaller moves in-between aren’t exactly terrifying. I won’t pretend like the combos of Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams or Kirk Cousin and Adam Thielen won’t do some serious damage, but the Lions caught a small break here. Allen Robinson, David Montgomery, and Tarik Cohen are all great young players, but if Trubisky or Foles look anything like they did last season, few teams will have trouble stalling the offense.
If Stafford can stay healthy, a nice receiving group that consists of Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, and T.J. Hockenson can stay in it and maybe sneak in some great games. I still won’t be surprised if the defense continues to get torched, with Stafford not always able to keep the offense in it.
Best finish: 9-7
Worst finish: 4-12
4. Pittsburgh Steelers
Like the Lions, the Steelers found themselves without their franchise quarterback for almost the entire season. Unlike the Lions, they had one of the best defenses in the league to compensate and keep their streak of at least 8 wins every season since Ben Roethlisberger was drafted in 2004. The biggest question mark now is Roethlisberger’s arm. After injuring his (right) throwing elbow, he needed surgery but thankfully did not require Tommy John, a sometimes risky and career-altering procedure mostly done on baseball players.
In the AFC North, the Steelers are no lock for anything. Even in an expanded playoffs, a 7th seed will still have to be earned. If Big Ben can return to normal, the 2018 passing leader can take this offense to new heights. If he can’t, the defense may not be able to carry the team like they did last year. In case you were wondering how close they were, six of their eight wins were decided by one score.
Best finish: 13-3
Worst finish: 7-9
3. Denver Broncos
In a class dominated by Rookie of the Year Kyler Murray, the attention to the other rookie quarterbacks was sparse. Daniel Jones and Dwayne Haskins struggled but showed flashes, but Drew Lock may have secretly had a much better season. In his five starts for the Denver Broncos, Lock threw for 1,000 yards, 7 touchdowns, and only 3 interceptions. His 4 wins accounted for more than half of the Broncos total wins on the season, and he showed so much potential. He was mobile but calm, and wasn’t forcing too many throws. He did a lot of what Tom Brady has been doing for years now and getting criticized for; making those easy throws a few yards ahead of the line of scrimmage. Brady often gets flack for “dumping it off” but it works. When the defense constantly gives you that space, you take advantage. Lock has a bright future.
The Broncos have been one of the most talked about teams this offseason, and their draft only fueled the conversation. The Broncos took two wide receivers with their first two picks in the draft, including Jerry Jeudy from Alabama. The young offensive receiver trio of Courtland Sutton, Jeudy, and K.J. Hamler, along with tight end Noah Fant and running backs Melvin Gordon and Philip Lindsay will give Lock a lot to work with. The offensive line was nothing special last season, with right guard Graham Glasgow joining the team after his departure from Detroit. After drafting center Lloyd Cushenberry III in the third round, it’s clear that the team is building around Lock with the assumption that he is their franchise QB.
The defense is looking to return to their former glory days when they helped Peyton Manning win one last ring in 2015. Although Chris Harris Jr. has left for the division rival chargers, former Jaguars cornerback A.J. Bouye will step into that role now. Von Miller is one of the best linebackers this century, and will continue to be the glue for this team. After a rookie season that saw him amass 12 sacks, Bradley Chubb tore his ACL in his second year. The 24-year-old linebacker should help put pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
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This team rises and falls with Lock. His small sample size of games against some questionable defenses still scares me, and this young offense can easily implode on itself. The Chiefs won’t be giving up their division crown so easily, and the Chargers are loaded with talent almost everywhere but at QB. My confidence in this team’s future doesn’t fully outweigh my concerns this season.
Best finish: 11-5
Worst finish: 6-10
2. Seattle Seahawks
While former first overall pick Jadaveon Clowney still remains a free agent, the Seahawks shook the football world by trading for Jets safety Jamal Adams and giving up their own safety in Bradley McDougald, along with multiple early picks. Since his rookie year, Adams has been a pro bowler twice, and a first-team and second-team All-Pro. To say he’s something special doesn’t even begin to describe it.
I’m sure many Hawks fans were hoping for some more help on the offensive side, it’s clear Russell Wilson can still play at an elite level and carry the offense on his own. Following the collapse of the Legion of Boom, the legendary Seahawks defense that forced receiving rules to change, Seattle has been barely scraping by. The team has made the playoffs four times in the past five seasons, but they haven’t returned to the NFC Championship since their consecutive super bowl appearances in 2013 and 2014.
A pro-bowler all but one season of his career, Wilson is somewhat underrated. With guys like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, and Dak Prescott leading the league as fresher faces, Wilson sometimes gets left behind in top-tier discussions. Perhaps the decline in his rushing attempts has led fans to look to the flashier guys who do spin moves and make insane plays. At 31, Wilson is far from old, but is clearly trying to play as long as he can. If you saw his last season, you know he can scramble, evade defenders in the pocket, and place the football beautifully through defenders hands and into the waiting arms of a receiver in the corner of the endzone. The guy has still got it.
Injury concerns loom for standouts like Chris Carson and Bobby Wagner. The Hawks were one of the youngest teams in the league, and they will look to players like D.K. Metcalf, Jordyn Brooks, Rasheem Green and Tre Flowers to pick up the slack. With Wilson there, though, they may not even need to.
Best finish: 12-4
Worst finish: 7-9
1. New England Patriots
Even if this team was led by Brian Hoyer or Jarrett Stidham, I still would have had them here. Cam Newton just makes things more interesting.
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It’s hard to say a team led by arguably the best coach in history has a chance at failure, but here we are. I don’t think I’m being bold in saying that the team takes a hit after losing Tom Brady.
To his credit, Belichick has been in a similar position before. In 2008, Tom Brady missed almost the entire season, and a Matt Cassel-led team went 11-5 and managed to make the playoffs. Even the most passionate Cam Newton haters would admit that he has more potential this season. But that’s just it; Cam is their ceiling. If he fails, the team relies on the defense, whereas Brady was always a threat in the final minutes of the game. Even when you have an elite defense and a legendary head coach, you don’t want to rely on your defense every game. Just look at the Steelers.
It seems like every season the league thinks the Patriots dynasty has finally ended, only for them to prove us wrong. However, their weaknesses are showing. After starting the season 8-0, the Patriots ended 12-4. Of their final four wins, three of them were one score games against good teams. With one of the hardest schedules in the league facing them, how can we guarantee anything?
I’m not putting the Patriots here because I think the loss of Brady automatically destroys their season. There is still a lot of young offensive talent in wide receiver N’Keal Harry, running back Sony Michel, and offensive tackle Isaiah Wynn. Julian Edelman is still putting up 1,000 yard seasons at 34, and the 2019 defensive player of the year is still on the team.
It’s just too easy to imagine a scenario where the Patriots begin to struggle.
Best finish: 14-2
Worst Finish: 8-8
