We’re about halfway through the NFL season which means we have a good idea of which teams are contenders and which ones are pretenders. Of course, no playoff spots have been taken and even the largest of division leads may fall. The 6-0 Steelers could still technically miss out should they face an unprecedented series of unfortunate events. You don’t bet anticipating that. You make picks by trying to stay sharp and not let your gut feelings decide every move. With an extra playoff spot in each conference, you have a bit of a safety net when it comes to riskier picks, which is why I love taking middle-of-the-pack teams to make the playoffs rather than individual division winners. There’s perhaps less money to be made on a big hit, but it’s what I expect to get more wins this year.
AFC East
With news of the Patriots fire sale, I don’t think it’s worth burning money taking the team to make the playoffs. The Dolphins are the only team worth taking here but I don’t think this team is quite good enough to win the division. They’re not a terrible pick but they have been a confusing team. They beat the Jets and Jaguars who are not quality opponents, but also beat the 49ers and Rams by two scores. Their defense is keeping this team together but with their remaining schedule and the competitiveness of the rest of the AFC, I would rather bet on them missing the playoffs.
Picks: Miami Dolphins to miss playoffs (-278), Patriots under 7 wins (-134)
AFC North
I would not be taking the Browns to win the division, no matter how good the value looks with their current record. It’s up to the Steelers and Ravens to fight it out with their soft schedules. The AFC North should easily provide three playoff teams, so if you’re going to take anything here, it’s the Browns to make the playoffs. I’d also keep a watchful eye on the Chiefs. They’re still the favorite to win the conference, but I think you get your best value from either the Steelers or Ravens. Luckily their rematch is on Thanksgiving Day, which is only a few weeks away. If the Steelers win again, swoop in quickly and take them with a first-round bye helping the team tremendously.
Picks: Browns to make playoffs (-305), Ravens over 11.5 wins (+107)
Watch: Steelers to win AFC (+275)
AFC South
I’m not sure what to make of the Colts. They’re a complete team but overall underwhelming. Should they make the playoffs, I’m not convinced they’ll make much noise. The Colts have rough sledding ahead, and while Tennessee has similar opponents, they’re clearly the better team and Derrick Henry is going to heat up in the winter cold. Their lacking defense gets a break with some bad QB play ahead.
Picks: Titans to win division (-137), Colts to make playoffs (-225)
AFC West
There’s no reason a Denver team on crutches should be in the same conversation as Justin Herbert and the Chargers, but they had the same record heading into last week’s Broncos win. The Chargers unfortunately also faced playoff teams and good defenses but now have a beatable schedule outside of the Bills and a rematch with the division rival Chiefs. The Raiders get an even better schedule and have beaten some of the teams the Chargers couldn’t get it done against. The value pick are the Chargers who always have the talent but rarely live up to potential, but the safer pick are the Raiders, who I believe easily grab the 6th spot. The division crown is not up for grabs as long as Mahomes is here.
Picks: Raiders to make playoffs (+180), Chargers to make playoffs (+500)
NFC East
The East has never made it easy for anyone to predict them, but that uncertainty is where the value lies. I’m not convinced we see two teams here make the playoffs, even though a lot of the losses have come in close games. I’m taking Washington to win it with their tiebreaker over the Eagles and Cowboys. Philadelphia is the only real threat and seems to be the most complete team, but I think Washington has enough talent for Kyle Allen to grab the wins over the bad teams. Even with Seattle and Pittsburgh, they only need to be decent to win this bad division.
Picks: Washington to win division (+375), Giants over 4 wins (+130), Eagles under 6.5 wins (+118)
NFC North
Believe it or not, Chicago is now on the outside looking in at 5-3 while the 5-2 Packers lead the division. The lines for the divisions are too large for me to take a division winner and not feel like I’m taking a huge risk. Sometimes those big lines work but I have more confidence backing the other underdogs I’ve mentioned. Taking Chicago to miss the playoffs is the only reasonable pick here, but with the subpar talent just below them in the standings, I wouldn’t put much money into it.
Picks: Bears to miss playoffs (+130)
NFC South
The Bucs are running away with this but their rematch against the Saints is this week. Some sportsbooks even have Tampa as underdogs to win the division. If you can get that kind of value, I’d take it. Their receiver trio should be the best in the league, and after a slow start they look as good as anyone. I also love the Panthers, who are massive underdogs to make the playoffs after a bad loss to the Falcons. I’m surprised this line hasn’t been adjusted to account for the return of Christian McCaffrey, but this is a hail mary that I’m willing to take in a conference that’s much more competitive. They only lost to the Raiders by 4, the Bears by 7, and the Saints by 3.
Picks: Bucs to win division (-175), Panthers to make playoffs (+625)
NFC West
This division is just a winning version of the East. Every team can’t stop winning, and even the injured 49ers are only a few games out of the division lead. If you want to take the future MVP’s 6-1 Seahawks, you’re probably more brave than I am. Aside from their win last week, they have won each game by one score. If they didn’t have the rest of the NFC East waiting for them, I could have been three or more losses on the schedule. I’m just taking the good lines I see to make the playoffs.
Picks: Rams to make playoffs (-230), 49ers to miss playoffs (-130)
