Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos
Pick: Broncos +3.5
Here was a great opportunity to take advantage of an inflated line. The line opened up a few weeks ago with the Broncos as a short -1.5 favorite. As gametime grew closer, the Broncos announced that they’d be without star linebacker Von Miller for the season and the Titans signed DE Ja’Daveon Clowney. To see this line jump all the way to -2.5 to the Titans was way too dramatic in my opinion. I had this game as a PK, so it was just a matter of waiting the line out and taking advantage of the best price we could get.
Certainly 3 missed FG’s and a missed XP helped along the way for this bet. However, regardless of those occurrences the Broncos still had an opportunity to win this game straight up. This is a bet that is not going to work out 10/10 times, but its positive EV makes it worthwhile 10/10 times.
Final: 16-14 Titans
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
Pick: Over 9
This was a matchup of two pitchers who are starting to put it together. Berrios and Cease can both be pretty erratic and are prone to giving up big innings. I liked the over as both these lineups can get on base and hit home runs against pitchers whose surface stats are great but their peripherals are closer to average.
The outcome? One of the more frustrating games to watch. 17 total hits in the game and 4 total runs? Not what we expected/needed. Both teams were a combined 5-29 with runners in scoring position. The runners stranded stats for these pitchers will look good, but know that this is a surprising outcome given the stats.
Final: 3-1 White Sox
Overall:
Daily Figure: 3-1 (+1.15 units)
Weekly Figure: 1.15 units
