For the second time in less than a week, the UFC is back on the sandy shores of Yas Island in Abu Dhabi! This will be the second of their three International Fight Week cards. This past Saturday’s event proved to be more of an unpredictable fight night for the island, with a majority of main card fights ending via finish and a hefty amount of underdogs cashing. Littered with talent and prospects, Wednesday’s card looks to be a promising one with the main scrap of the night being Michael Chiesa (16-4) against Neil Magny (24-7), in the welterweight division. There is betting value to be found on the card as well, just in time before Saturday’s UFC 257 PPV.
The first fight of the night, is a bantamweight bout between Umar Nurmagomedov (12-0) and Sergey Morozov (16-3). Nurmagomedov looks to keep his undefeated streak alive as a huge -500 favorite. while I definitely think he gets his hand raised, this -500 an insane amount to lay on any fighter. Instead, this is where we find the value, taking Nurmagomedov to win via KO/TKO at +650 and via submission at +300 has amazing value considering how dominant Dagestani fighters are on the ground and how much cage surface area there is to work with.
In the middleweight division, Omari Akhmedov (20-5-1) faces Tom Breese (12-2) in a battle of high level technicians. Overall, Breese’s last three fights are nothing to write home about. With a 1-2 record, it’s his most recent fight, a win over KB Bhullar that has the MMA world buzzing. After a great display of striking, Breese unleashed what seemed to be a jab from hell that broke through Bhullar’s defense, sending him to the mat. Breese is no stranger to finishing his fights winning 10 of his 12 fights via finish, the best part is most are submission wins, meaning Breese is just beginning to come into his striking. Akhmedov is no laughing matter, but his most recent performance seemed flat, in a decision loss to former champ Chris Weidman. For that reason, Breese at -160 is the pick.
Three things are certain in life 1) Death 2) Taxes 3) as of right now Su Mudaerji is a finish machine. With 12 wins, 11 finishes, and 9 of them coming in the first round, Mudaerji enters his fight as a -450 favorite against Khazak fighter Zarrukh Adashev 3-2 (who’s last fight ended in a 40 second KO at the hands of Tyson Nam.) With almost 50 ranks between them in the international bantamweight rankings, it’s hard to find a way Adashev wins this bout. Once again though, -450 is a high price to pay for any fighter, but I will add it to a parlay that I will highlight at the end of the article.
For many MMA fans, Warlley Alves has a special place in our hearts as he is one of only two fighters to hand Colby Covington a loss. Granted Warlley got his hands on Covington before Colby started hateful and racist banter, but that’s besides the point. Alves (13-4) faces Mounir Lazzez (10-1) in the welterweight division. Lazzez is most definitely an up and comer in the UFC, after an impressive showing against Abdul-Razak Alhassan last July. With an impressive arsenal of strikes, Lazzez is a master of managing his distance and with a large cage I expect him to use that to his advantage. Lazzes enters this fight a -230 favorite and in my mind justifiably so. Add this to our parlay.
While the UFC usually does an amazing job at making sure their bouts are even, there may not be a better example than the main event of the night. In the welterweight division Michael Chiesa (16-4) meets Neil Magny (24-7) in a battle for a top 10 ranking. TUF 15 winner, Michael Chiesa possesses a ton of experience within the promotion. With 14 UFC bouts under his belt, all while maintaining a high ranking, Chiesa has kept himself a dangerous fighter in the division. Magny, on the other hand, lost in the semifinals of TUF 16, but has almost double the UFC experience of Chiesa with 24 UFC bouts under his belt. While both these men may be called “journeymen” by casual mma fans, fighters dont obtain that many fights in the world’s top promotion without possessing the skills to be there. Given the similarities in these fighters’ abilities and their careers as a whole, it’s hard to pick a favorite here. I’ll be paying attention to the line movement, closer to fight time and we’ll see where the money moves.
Of course we wouldn’t be the Noise Media without finding you the absolute most value on every card and here it is: Parlaying Nurmagomedov -500, Mudaerji, and Lazzez -230 pays out at +110. International fight week doesn’t end here, as the octagon comes back to bless our lives this saturday with UFC 257 on PPV.
