Chicago White Sox at Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Reds ML (-123)
Here was a great opportunity to back the Reds as a short favorite. This was about the edge of value on the team, probably up to -130. The average person would see this game and think why are the White Sox and their bats underdogs against the Reds who aren’t throwing any of their aces. These are exactly the spots you want to take advantage of. The White Sox have hit well all season but they have struggled with discipline. For all the home runs they hit, they strike out too much and walk too little. That is not something sustainable for a full season. (Partially why the 60-game season has helped them). Tyler Mahle, for the Reds, features a wipe-out slider that he has used to take a big step forward in the second half of the season. He does have a penchant for giving up the long-ball, but it was well worth the risk here as the White Sox peripherals are trending down.
Final: 7-1 Reds
Overall:
It’s been an up and down week, with baseball winding down and the NFL kicking off. I again looked to target a parlay, which payed off handsomely. Remember, the added risk of parlays and their expected values are taken into account by my risk model! Do not expect parlays every day and do not parlay every game. Stick to the script, that gives us long term success.
Daily Recap: 2-2 (+2.65 units)
Weekly Recap: -1.55 units
